Nifty Outlook for 20th July, 2016

Nifty Outlook for 20th July, 2016

  10:55 PM    Unknown

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NIFTY CHART OF THE DAY

Nifty Trend	In 60 minutes	In Daily	In Weekly	In Yearly
Nifty (Spot)	UP	UP	UP	UP

Market commentary: Nifty Spot

Nifty Spot: All eyes on GST bill. Nifty ended on a positive note.

Nifty did took support at the lower part of our yellow channel; near 8480 and bounced to close on a positive note. Now all eyes are on GST Bill. Technically, as Nifty holds 8480 mark, we could expect the momentum to continue towards 8717 mark which marks the top part of the long trending upward channel highlighted in green. The short term would be reversed only on a close below 8480, till then one can drive the market on the long side. Adding to the technical, news flow from the on-going monsoon session would act as a booster or it could be a trend breaker.

Nifty Spot: The next leg down will commence soon, watch out for 7980 – 7950 to be broken first.

Let us sit back and analyse the entire move up right from 6825. 6825 was an important technical support level, which is exactly 50% retracement from the entire leg up which was in place from 2014. It was during the day of budget, due to announcement of 3.5% deficit and giving hope for a rate cut from central bank, the market move smartly from 6825. The hope rally began very swiftly. Then came less than anticipated rate cut, however there was still hope as governor said further rate cut is possible if monsoon is normal. We saw the largest drop post announcement in the entire leg up. Hope still continues as soon as MET department announced, we will have better than the normal monsoon, and Nifty moved towards 8500 mark. If you were to analyse, one thing is for sure, the entire move up was built on ‘hope’. Now it is time to test reality. If we can hold on to 6825 in the next leg down, we are going to see another Bull Run in Nifty, if not ‘hope’ would turn out to be ‘nightmare’.

Nifty Future: Positional & Intraday guidance

For intraday traders (Nifty Future) try to do jobbing on both the sides of market movement. You can use the levels given below to trade accordingly.

Instrument	Action	Entry	Target 1	Target 2	Target 3	Target 4	Stop Loss
Nifty (July Fut.)	Buy Above	8533	8552	8575	8598	8621	8510
Nifty (July Fut.)	Sell Below	8510	8491	8468	8445	8422	8533

The levels for the day remains the same.