#Nifty Bulls V/s. Bears: The power struggle continues...
Nifty
is facing stiff resistance at around 8666 – 8680. The zone is crucial and might
play its part in the coming weeks. As we approached towards this zone, Bears
who were unsuccessful since the day of Budget has started to pull string once
again. Will they be successful once again?
We
are going to analyse the Bull case and Bear case that’s going to play out in
the coming weeks. This is valid only if we see a correction from 8666 mark. The
confirmation of a correction happens only if Nifty closes below 8360. If not,
we will resume upward journey towards 8878 and 9000+ mark.
If correction takes
place…
Bull Case:
Bulls
are hoping the correction do not last beyond 7750 and once if the correction
ends anywhere above it, then that forms another inverted H&S; which would
give bulls to push prices towards new high in the coming months. As it stands,
if the correction begins, the probability for Bull Case scenario is more
(~70%). The ideal correction would end somewhere around 7850 – 7750; keeping
the prices within the bullish channel.
Bearish Case:
The
bears are hoping on to an expanding triangle formation. They argue Nifty is in a
triangle since the start of bear run from 9119. The smart move since the day of
budget is just the “D” leg of the triangle and once “E” the last leg commences,
it could take prices towards new lows (around 6400). While we cannot completely
ignore this picture, it looks bit scary. Why I am considering this option is
because some of the best brains in technical analysis industry is vouching for
such a move. I have seen them making stunning forecasts like this in the past,
and I have huge respect for them.
My assessment:
As
it stands, I favour the Bullish stance. If the correction happens, it would end
around 7850 – 7750. I would reconsider Bearish case only if Nifty fails to hold
the said zone. I would also not be surprised if Nifty crosses and close above
8666 – 8680 and correction is been pushed further few months ahead. As it
stands, be prepared for a healthy correction.
Praveen Pathiyil
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