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Monday, November 21, 2016

Nifty: Correction likely to end in next couple of days. Watch 7890 on closing basis.


Good Morning All!


It's been a long wait for the correction to end. We had called for 10% - 15% correction and it was during that time, Nifty was reluctant to drift lower. Now the situation has changed drastically; wherein everyone is in a panic mode. If things were to be analysed and believe, we are going to see a bottom in place in next few days. The up-trend that was in place since March is most likely to resume in the new expiry series of December. 

Once you find Nifty closer to 7900, buy 7900 DEC Call with a closing SL on Nifty spot below 7890 - 7880. 7890 holds the key to determine the future course of action.

Praveen Pathiyil

Monday, September 12, 2016

Nifty Update: Nifty at Panic Channel Lows, Bulls could protect it for a smart bounce...


Nifty:

Good Morning all...

If you were to draw a trend line connecting two panics for the year (the budget day panic low of 6825 and June 24th Brexit panic lows) it corresponds to today's low as of now (10:15 am). Bulls are not going to let their gains go off in a single shot, they will try to protect it and a smart bounce from these lows are not ruled out. While the medium term outlook remains firm for a correction of 10% - 15% as communicated last week, short term bounce towards 8900 is not ruled out. In fact, this correction is most likely to be enjoyed by Bulls rather than the Bears. Let's tune into the game of Bulls v/s. Bears.

Note: If Bulls fails to hold the panic trend line bottom, there comes a strong support zone of 8540 - 8570. 

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Nifty heading towards 9000 mark. 10% - 15% correction round the cornor


Dear All,

As we fast approach the key level of 9000 mark in Nifty; Nifty could face stiff resistance around previous life time high zone. On the valuations front too, Nifty current value is stretched. Technically, we hadn't seen a meaningful correction from the bounce from 6825 making a strong contention for a 10 - 15% correction most likely. In the weeks ahead we are moving towards 8000 mark. Any bounce towards 9000+ mark need to utilized for profit booking. I have updated our trade book for a quick reference.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/h2o3odo

Happy Trading!
Praveen Pathiyil   

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Add to Portfolio: LT


LT India:

It is all poised for another leg upside. This industrial giant has the potential to create wealth for shareholders on the long run and with current valuations, LT is a best buy for the moment. Expect around 20% - 25% gains in the next one year time horizon.

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Nifty broke past 8740! Short term momentum and portfolio stock added.


Nifty Daily

Nifty finally manages to close above crucial resistance zone at 8740; giving more confidence for the bulls that another leg up is due probably towards new high. The last one month of sideways consolidation has absorbed all over-heatedness found in the market and is providing more room for Bulls on the upside. Going long in Nifty is advisable.

Short term momentum calls for the day are: Buy Pidilite and ICICI Bank

Add to portfolio: ChennPetro

Nifty broke past 8740!


Nifty Daily

Nifty finally manages to close above crucial resistance zone at 8740; giving more confidence for the bulls that another leg up is due probably towards new high. The last one month of sideways consolidation has absorbed all over-heatedness found in the market and is providing more room for Bulls on the upside. Going long in Nifty is advisable.

Short term momentum calls for the day are: Buy Pidilite and ICICI Bank
Add to portfolio: ChennPetro

Will update charts soon!

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Weekend Trackpad


Hi All,

Please find attached the weekend tracker...

http://tinyurl.com/gtbjhb4

Thank you.
Praveen Pathiyil

Thursday, August 25, 2016

What to do next in Nifty? Explained in a single sentence...


Nifty Daily

Go Long in Nifty and Stocks only if we get a close above 8740 and Go Short in Nifty and Stocks if Nifty closes below 8580.

Following are the stocks that we hold at the moment and try to reduce holdings till we get clearer cues from the markets.

Indo Rama
Chennai Petro
RCOM
FEDERAL BANK
AUROPHARMA
GILLETTE IND
ANDHARA BANK
Reliance
All Cargo
Tata Motor DVR
HDFC Bank
Himatseide
Radico Kaitan

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Nifty @ an interesting spot...Held 8580


Nifty Daily

Last week I had mentioned two things: One: the downside move in Nifty would not be so smooth because of too many support holding up Nifty Bulls, Two: The importance of the raising upward channel would act as a key trigger for next move. Both we witnessed today. Nifty Bulls held the levels exactly at the lower part of the channel @ 8580. Now 8580 becomes the key level to watch out for. Once we get a close below 8580 then the downside move would be fast and Bears would be happy. However, I anticipate a dead cat bounce before this happens; and I am eager to see whether the bounce leg would actually take Nifty towards 8878. It would be interesting to watch what Smart Money do here; is it unwind Longs and go short or build up more longs. We will get an answer in 2 trading days; because we are also round the corner of an expiry. 

Monday, August 22, 2016

Stock of the day: Radico Khaitan


After the downside move, Radico has given a breakout with heavy volumes last week. If the breakout is for real; we could see prices moving towards 115 - 125 very soon. The price-volume breakout on the weekly chart makes this stock a favorite for the day.


Sunday, August 21, 2016

Weekend Trackpad


Good Morning all!

It was another good week that just got over. We have squared off many positions from our kitty on Friday. We just wanted to trim and keep it simple over the next few weeks. Attached along with is the latest track pad updated as on Friday, 19th August, 2016.

 http://tinyurl.com/gtah45q

Regards,
Praveen Pathiyil

Friday, August 19, 2016

Short term momentum calls for 19th August, 2016


We have identified two stocks that could run up in the short term as there is steam left for another leg up in both the stocks.

1. HDFC Bank
Clearly a leader among the banking sector for past decade, this stock still has more room in the upside especially on the very short term basis. Though the moves have become slower off late, we believe it's consistent performance could push up prices once again.

2. HimatSeide
Ready for another spin on the upside. This manufacturing company has the potential to push prices further up in the coming days. We could see prices moving towards 280 and 300 in this stock.

Nifty Bulls are losing control; watch out for resistance zone @ 8710 - 8740


Nifty Daily
If you were to observe closely (of late) the Nifty chart; one thing is evident, that the rallies are getting smaller and corrections are getting larger. This is the first indication showing that Bulls are losing control on the upward momentum, though they try to protect the lows. By protecting the lows they manage to hold on higher high - low pattern till date. If that too falls apart; Bears will start over powering. Watch out for 8710 - 8740 where there is strong resistance and any close above it would give Bulls the power to ride the markets further upside. A close below the crucial support zone 8630 - 8600 would add power to Bears and would take Nifty towards 8380 - 8350 levels.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Short term momentum calls for 18th August, 2016


We have identified three stock picks for the day, which could move upside along with the current momentum. The stocks are:

1. MAHSEAMLES
Having rebounded from the weekly low this stock has the potential to move higher for a quick rebound. We could expect a quick 4% - 5% gains in this counter.

2. KESORAMIND
This stock is in a perfect bull channel for past several weeks. We expect this to continue as there is still room for more upside in this stock.

3. GUJALKALI
The winning streak continues for the bulls in Guj Alkali. Though the run has been very fast and swift; the volumes data suggests more upside is intact for this counter.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Nifty Outlook for 17th August, 2016


Nifty Daily:

Nifty has been consolidating with negative bias at the higher levels. It is now fast approaching the support of the raising trend channel. Last week we noted, it's not going to be easy for Nifty to go down that smooth as it has created too many support and each support needs to be broken first for a smooth ride downside. Now Nifty could face three support inter-aligned in between 8540 - 8520. If this support is held for this week, we could see a rebound in nifty. Technically, the over heatedness is cooled off and now there is room for smart bounce as soon as some major support (like 8540) is tested.

Stay tuned as I update the status of all stocks that we are holding and it's status. We shall resume short term momentum calls from tomorrow.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Short term momentum call for 11th August, 2016


Geojit 

With every dip been bought into with higher volumes; this stock has the potential to move higher towards 47 mark in the coming days. Have been making a perfect higher high - low pattern in technical charts.

Finolex Cables

This stock is all set to breakout from the side ways consolidation that we have been witnessing for the past few days. Once broken out this stock has the potential to higher towards 430 - 450 levels.

VHL
Vardhaman Holdings: The chart suggests that this stock will continue to move higher for next few days and would move towards 1400 once again and move towards 1450 - 1500. Though be cautious as this is a low volume counter comparatively. We couldn't place this stock chart here. 

Nifty Outlook for 11th August, 2016.


After closing above 8666 – 8680 resistance zone for two trading days; Nifty enters into a profit booking mode. Is this merely a profit booking or correction is in place? Well the speculators seems to be confident that the correction is in place. Looking at the Nifty Futures data; we found unwinding of long positions and built up in short positions; though this seems to confirm Nifty is entering into correction zone; this data is unreliable. The reason is during the past we have witnessed drastic changes in this data turning positive-negative and vice versa so fast. Along with this on the technical chart, we find many support in place to be tested before Nifty confirms the correction. If support promises to hold, this on-going profit booking would merely be an opportunity to enter long and the over heatedness that we found in Nifty would be cooled off; providing Nifty the room to move higher. We shall confirm correction once Nifty closes below 8475. If confirmed, Nifty would move towards 7780 – 7850.


Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Nifty continues rally ahead of RBI meet


Nifty closed above 8700 making it yearly high close for this year. Ahead of policy meet, this close suggests that market might be discounting a probable rate cut coming up in next month's policy decision. As far as technicals are concerned; nifty still looks positive and more room left on upside towards 8878. Any close below 8580 only needs to be looked into as a alarming sign.

For the day, bulls might be in full action and control.

Monday, August 8, 2016

Nifty Outlook and short term momentum calls for 08/08/16


NIFTY CHART OF THE DAY

Nifty Trend
In 60 minutes
In Daily
In Weekly
In Yearly
Nifty (Spot)
UP
UP
UP
UP

Market commentary: Nifty Spot

Nifty Spot: Closed above 8666 – 8680; eyeing 8878

Nifty did manage to close above 8666 – 8680 resistance zone. Now Nifty could march higher towards 8878. 8878 is a minor resistance zone when compared to that of 8666 – 8680. On its comparative basis; we expect Nifty to surpass even that if current bulls strength remains intact. Looking at the technicals, Nifty is still over heated and as the resistance zone is surpassed; it could well manage to run very fast towards 8878 mark. On the other hand, if Nifty fails to hold on to the closing resistance zone; then it calls for a cautious view (this is unlikely to happen). Watch out for the run up followed by mild correction by end of this weekend.

Va Tech Wabag

After being in a consolidation mode, this stock could give a breakout on the upside very soon. This breakout could lead this fundamentally strong stock to move towards 620 and 650 levels.

Ramco Cements

After a meaningful correction to the upside in past 2 weeks, this stock is all poised for resuming its rally. The new rally could resume towards 52 week high of 600+

Tata Motor DVR

We had exited the stock 2 – 3 weeks back after a sharp rally. The stock did witnessed a meaningful correction and all set for next leg up. This new leg upside would carry the stock towards 350+.

Friday, August 5, 2016

Weekend Trackpad


Good evening all,

It was a very volatile week, having moved sharply lower; Nifty rose completely by end of the week. The positive is: it did close above 8666-8680 resistance zone. Ending at this positive note, Nifty should move higher towards 8878 the week ahead. However, will do the analysis by weekend.

Quick Link: http://tinyurl.com/zc8ucap for looking at the weekly trackpad.

Happy weekend.
Praveen Pathiyil

Thursday, August 4, 2016

GST gets cleared in RS. Technically Nifty could still face hurdle at 8666.


GST gets cleared in RS as anticipated. This is a major reformatory act enacted by our government since 1991. There is more clarity to be issued on how this is to be implemented by April 1st, 2017. However, this news has already been discounted by our market. So what’s likely to happen next?

Nifty might bounce towards 8650 mark and could hit the resistance bump at 8666 level once again. Unless we get a close above 8666 – 8680; it would be difficult for Nifty to move ahead. Most likely a correction is in place and any bounce in market would be sold into. On the other hand, only if Nifty manages to close above the resistance zone; has more room towards 8878 – 9000 mark before a correction could “possibly” kick in.

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Rupee update: Will history repeats? Are we heading towards 59?



I am a chartist and I don’t look for cause and effect relationship; but believes in what chart speaks to me. This is an update on Indian Rupee post that we have made two weeks ago. Looking at the Indian Rupee chart, an observation was made and that was shared two weeks back. In that update I had informed that on the weekly chart if we close below ~66.5 we are heading towards 59 mark, which could make our Rupee stronger.


Now let us analyse the Big Picture. Updated above is the Indian Rupee chart since 1998. I have bifurcated the chart into distinct parts based on our Governor’s (in red dotted lines) and on the basis of ruling party (in blue dotted lines). If you were to keenly observe the chart, one thing could be observed: during the congress period both UPA 1 and UPA 2, we have seen appreciation in first half followed by depreciation during second half of their tenure. On the other hand during the previous BJP government (under Vajpayee ji), we had seen a depreciation in the first half followed by an appreciation in the second half. If history were to repeat; under Modi ji this time, we could see depreciation in the first half of his tenure (it has happened) and an appreciation in the second half (we shall wait and watch; will INR hit 59 mark). Technically, the breakdown in the weekly chart of the INR is showing signs of a stronger Rupee.

Disclaimer: I have not factored in any other economic factors influencing INR movement; these observation are purely based on technical charts.

If INR move towards 59 and below; our economy would be stronger. Let’s hope as a country we grow stronger.

Nifty update: 8565 – 8555 holds key for the day


As expected Nifty did find turbulence in the zone of 8666 – 8680. Having failed to close above this resistance zone; Nifty has been under pressure this morning. The zone of 8565 – 8555 gives us next cues as what would unfold in the coming days. Any close below the said support zone (8565 – 8555) confirms that Nifty is heading towards a correction. The correction could drag Nifty towards 7850 mark; though the correction wouldn’t be smooth initially as the upward trending channel would come into play. As of now let us concentrate on the support zone. If there is any major change will keep you posted.

Monday, August 1, 2016

Nifty fails to close above 8666.



Wild swings, Nifty failed to close above 8666, indicating the tug of war between Bulls and Bears continues. While Nifty Bulls and Bears continues to fight for next price action; stocks resumed its underlying trend. Thus we witnessed huge buying pressure in quality and fundamentally strong stocks. IT was a surprise pack though! We have identified that IT sector has turned down since the month of July; however we witnessed resumed buying interest in IT stocks. We still believe IT stocks could move lower and the bounce back that we are witnessing is merely a dead cat bounce. While the short term trend in Nifty still remains intact Bullish, we expect the Bears putting pressure as long as Nifty fails to close above 8666 – 8680 levels. Once crossed we could test 8878; on the other hand continuous failure to close above this resistance zone could trigger correction in Nifty by end of this week.

Monday's Short term momentum calls...


Good Morning all!

Firstly, what to expect from markets this week?

If Nifty manages to close above 8666, then it would rise immediately towards 8878. Looking at the weekly chart, Nifty could find profit booking during the fag end of this week; probably second half of Thursday and Friday. Till Wednesday, it is expected to rise and continue bullish momentum.

Here are our 3 short term momentum calls for today.

1. AKZOINDIA


After being in a long consolidation phase, Akzo Nobel has given a breakout last week and have been moving in a small upward moving channel. The upside is still intact and the stock will face resistance at 1750, however this stock has more upside and could move towards 1800 levels.

2. ALLCARGO

This stock is in a perfect parabolic channel. We expect it to raise further with increased momentum, especially with GST discussion on in Monsoon session. The climax would come once the GST bill is passed officially.

3. TNPL

This paper company's price action can be channelized and we can find there more steam left for this company to push prices past 300 mark. Our price target for this company (through short term momentum) would be around 320 - 350.

08/08/2016: CMP: 301. Book complete profits, call closed.

Friday, July 29, 2016

Weekend trackpad


Hello everyone,

It was another good week to end, wherein Nifty manages to close near to 52 week highs. It was an eventful week for our investments and short term trading too. Click on the link below for the trackpad.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_J98eLYWsF2SEItTXlZSzJYcHc

For more news, stocks and investment ideas do visit us at pentadinvestmentadvisory.blogspot.com

Happy weekend!

Praveen Pathiyil

Short term Momentum calls for 29th July, 2016


Today we bring to you two charts, which are most likely to breakout on the upside. These charts are identical and picturize similar price action formation. Once broken out of the channel these two scrips has the potential to move rapidly on the upside.

1. India Cements:

Having moved in a channel, the price has almost peaking out; however with volumes kicking in at the very fag end of the upper channel we believe it to breakout of the channel moving towards 135 - 150 levels.

2. CESC:

Similar chart to that of India Cements, here too the price action has been channelized and most likely a breakout on the upside is possible. The breakout implication for this stock would be around 640 - 660.

For more updates, please visit us at pentadinvestmentadvisory.blogspot.com 

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Reliance Industries: Add to portfolio


RELIANCE

The true wealth creator of last bull run; has been moving sideways for many years now. However, if one were to closely observe the price movement, we can find that it's been moving in a upward moving channel. It has tried a breakout once in 2014; but failed to cross over a major resistance at 1150 - 1180 zone. This stock is now ready for another upside move, move that could drive investors crazy. Fair target: 2000 in two year's time horizon.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

#Nifty Bulls V/s. Bears: The power struggle continues...


Nifty is facing stiff resistance at around 8666 – 8680. The zone is crucial and might play its part in the coming weeks. As we approached towards this zone, Bears who were unsuccessful since the day of Budget has started to pull string once again. Will they be successful once again?


We are going to analyse the Bull case and Bear case that’s going to play out in the coming weeks. This is valid only if we see a correction from 8666 mark. The confirmation of a correction happens only if Nifty closes below 8360. If not, we will resume upward journey towards 8878 and 9000+ mark.

If correction takes place…

Bull Case:


Bulls are hoping the correction do not last beyond 7750 and once if the correction ends anywhere above it, then that forms another inverted H&S; which would give bulls to push prices towards new high in the coming months. As it stands, if the correction begins, the probability for Bull Case scenario is more (~70%). The ideal correction would end somewhere around 7850 – 7750; keeping the prices within the bullish channel.

Bearish Case:


The bears are hoping on to an expanding triangle formation. They argue Nifty is in a triangle since the start of bear run from 9119. The smart move since the day of budget is just the “D” leg of the triangle and once “E” the last leg commences, it could take prices towards new lows (around 6400). While we cannot completely ignore this picture, it looks bit scary. Why I am considering this option is because some of the best brains in technical analysis industry is vouching for such a move. I have seen them making stunning forecasts like this in the past, and I have huge respect for them.

My assessment:

As it stands, I favour the Bullish stance. If the correction happens, it would end around 7850 – 7750. I would reconsider Bearish case only if Nifty fails to hold the said zone. I would also not be surprised if Nifty crosses and close above 8666 – 8680 and correction is been pushed further few months ahead. As it stands, be prepared for a healthy correction.

Praveen Pathiyil


ZEEL: Entertained reloaded


ZEEL

This stock has been in a perfectly trending channel. This stock now creating a new upward elevated channel, which could push prices higher and out of the current channel; making it to move higher rapidly. Fair target over the next two years: 750.

Andhara Bank: Add to portfolio


ANDHARABANK

After being in the downward moving channel, the breakout is confirmed by retesting the channel last week. This Bank could give impressive return and could move towards 100 mark over the next two years.

Gillette: Ready for a razor cutting move


GILLETTE

After completing the correction phase, this stock has been moving slowly on the upside with giving higher high-low on the weekly chart. The stock could move rapidly in the weeks to come and could take out the previous high of 5600.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Nifty Outlook for 25th July, 2016


NIFTY CHART OF THE DAY

Nifty Trend
In 60 minutes
In Daily
In Weekly
In Yearly
Nifty (Spot)
UP
UP
UP
UP

Market commentary: Nifty Spot
Nifty Spot: 8666 crucial, will Nifty manages to surpass?
Nifty is facing a stiff resistance in the area of 8580 – 8666. While there is no major downside seen for the moment, the overheated Nifty could enter into a corrective mode if fails to surpass 8666 this week. Technically if the correction takes place, it would be good and healthy sign for next leg up to resume. As it stands, the downside is seen around 7800 – 7750. Until Nifty holds those levels, we are in a long term bull run. On the flip side, if Nifty manages to surpass 8666, it could further heat(en) up towards 8800 – 9000 mark. The short term would be reversed only on a close below 8480, till then one can drive the market on the long side.
Nifty Spot: The next leg down will commence soon, watch out for 7980 – 7950 to be broken first.
Let us sit back and analyse the entire move up right from 6825. 6825 was an important technical support level, which is exactly 50% retracement from the entire leg up which was in place from 2014. It was during the day of budget, due to announcement of 3.5% deficit and giving hope for a rate cut from central bank, the market move smartly from 6825. The hope rally began very swiftly. Then came less than anticipated rate cut, however there was still hope as governor said further rate cut is possible if monsoon is normal. We saw the largest drop post announcement in the entire leg up. Hope still continues as soon as MET department announced, we will have better than the normal monsoon, and Nifty moved towards 8500 mark. If you were to analyse, one thing is for sure, the entire move up was built on ‘hope’. Now it is time to test reality. If we can hold on to 6825 in the next leg down, we are going to see another Bull Run in Nifty, if not ‘hope’ would turn out to be ‘nightmare’.
Nifty Future: Positional & Intraday guidance
For intraday traders (Nifty Future) try to do jobbing on both the sides of market movement. You can use the levels given below to trade accordingly.
Instrument
Action
Entry
Target 1
Target 2
Target 3
Target 4
Stop Loss
Nifty (July Fut.)
Buy Above
8533
8552
8575
8598
8621
8510
Nifty (July Fut.)
Sell Below
8510
8491
8468
8445
8422
8533


A word of caution: Market getting heated up...


Markets are getting heated up on the upside move (since day of budget), the correction is due round the corner. While there is no signs of a major downside (few great analyst whom I trust and follow is actually calling for a major downside), the healthy correction is due and could drag you down if being indiscipline. Exercise caution until Nifty fails to close above 8666.

Tata Power: Add to Portfolio


TATAPOWER

The most reliable power company for retail consumption, is also reliable for long term wealth creation. Having bounced from a downside moving channel, now it has the potential to move upside with 120 - 150 target levels on the cards down the line for 2 years.

Federal Bank: Add to Portfolio


FEDERALBNK

This little yet most powerful bank has more steam left in its kitty for upside. On all parameters, this bank looks good for a 2 year time horizon. This stock is definitely going to make it really really BIG...

Aurobindo Pharma: Add to portfolio


AUROPHARMA

One stock which is making news amongst analyst is AuroPharma. Having broken the neckline of an inverted H&S, the stock is ready to hit the resistance at 820 levels. Once surpassed it could move up towards 900 mark. Add to portfolio with 2 year time horizon.

GHCL: More upside in making.


GHCL

GHCL had a fantastic run upside and the move could be further fired up for an explosion. The final run up is yet to happen in this stock. Hold this stock for a final run up. Very Risky. Target 260 - 280.

25/07/2016: CMP: 225, Book Profits. Call Closed...