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Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Nifty broke past 8740! Short term momentum and portfolio stock added.

  8:05 AM    

Nifty Daily

Nifty finally manages to close above crucial resistance zone at 8740; giving more confidence for the bulls that another leg up is due probably towards new high. The last one month of sideways consolidation has absorbed all over-heatedness found in the market and is providing more room for Bulls on the upside. Going long in Nifty is advisable.

Short term momentum calls for the day are: Buy Pidilite and ICICI Bank

Add to portfolio: ChennPetro

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Nifty broke past 8740!

  8:05 AM    

Nifty Daily

Nifty finally manages to close above crucial resistance zone at 8740; giving more confidence for the bulls that another leg up is due probably towards new high. The last one month of sideways consolidation has absorbed all over-heatedness found in the market and is providing more room for Bulls on the upside. Going long in Nifty is advisable.

Short term momentum calls for the day are: Buy Pidilite and ICICI Bank
Add to portfolio: ChennPetro

Will update charts soon!

  

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Sunday, August 28, 2016

Weekend Trackpad

  11:08 AM    

Hi All,

Please find attached the weekend tracker...

http://tinyurl.com/gtbjhb4

 Thank you.
Praveen Pathiyil

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Thursday, August 25, 2016

What to do next in Nifty? Explained in a single sentence...

  8:51 AM    

Nifty Daily

 Go Long in Nifty and Stocks only if we get a close above 8740 and Go Short in Nifty and Stocks if Nifty closes below 8580.

Following are the stocks that we hold at the moment and try to reduce holdings till we get clearer cues from the markets.

Indo Rama
Chennai Petro
RCOM
FEDERAL BANK
AUROPHARMA
GILLETTE IND
ANDHARA BANK
Reliance
All Cargo
Tata Motor DVR
HDFC Bank
Himatseide
Radico Kaitan

  

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Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Nifty @ an interesting spot...Held 8580

  9:08 PM    

Nifty Daily
Last week I had mentioned two things: One: the downside move in Nifty would not be so smooth because of too many support holding up Nifty Bulls, Two: The importance of the raising upward channel would act as a key trigger for next move. Both we witnessed today. Nifty Bulls held the levels exactly at the lower part of the channel @ 8580. Now 8580 becomes the key level to watch out for. Once we get a close below 8580 then the downside move would be fast and Bears would be happy. However, I anticipate a dead cat bounce before this happens; and I am eager to see whether the bounce leg would actually take Nifty towards 8878. It would be interesting to watch what Smart Money do here; is it unwind Longs and go short or build up more longs. We will get an answer in 2 trading days; because we are also round the corner of an expiry. 

  

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Monday, August 22, 2016

Stock of the day: Radico Khaitan

  7:29 AM    

After the downside move, Radico has given a breakout with heavy volumes last week. If the breakout is for real; we could see prices moving towards 115 - 125 very soon. The price-volume breakout on the weekly chart makes this stock a favorite for the day.


  

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Sunday, August 21, 2016

Weekend Trackpad

  10:05 AM    

Good Morning all!

It was another good week that just got over. We have squared off many positions from our kitty on Friday. We just wanted to trim and keep it simple over the next few weeks. Attached along with is the latest track pad updated as on Friday, 19th August, 2016.

 http://tinyurl.com/gtah45q

 Regards,
Praveen Pathiyil

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Friday, August 19, 2016

Short term momentum calls for 19th August, 2016

  8:11 AM    

We have identified two stocks that could run up in the short term as there is steam left for another leg up in both the stocks.

1. HDFC Bank
Clearly a leader among the banking sector for past decade, this stock still has more room in the upside especially on the very short term basis. Though the moves have become slower off late, we believe it's consistent performance could push up prices once again.

 2. HimatSeide
Ready for another spin on the upside. This manufacturing company has the potential to push prices further up in the coming days. We could see prices moving towards 280 and 300 in this stock.

  

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Nifty Bulls are losing control; watch out for resistance zone @ 8710 - 8740

  7:53 AM    

Nifty Daily
If you were to observe closely (of late) the Nifty chart; one thing is evident, that the rallies are getting smaller and corrections are getting larger. This is the first indication showing that Bulls are losing control on the upward momentum, though they try to protect the lows. By protecting the lows they manage to hold on higher high - low pattern till date. If that too falls apart; Bears will start over powering. Watch out for 8710 - 8740 where there is strong resistance and any close above it would give Bulls the power to ride the markets further upside. A close below the crucial support zone 8630 - 8600 would add power to Bears and would take Nifty towards 8380 - 8350 levels.

  

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Thursday, August 18, 2016

Short term momentum calls for 18th August, 2016

  8:34 AM    

We have identified three stock picks for the day, which could move upside along with the current momentum. The stocks are:

1. MAHSEAMLES
Having rebounded from the weekly low this stock has the potential to move higher for a quick rebound. We could expect a quick 4% - 5% gains in this counter.

 2. KESORAMIND
This stock is in a perfect bull channel for past several weeks. We expect this to continue as there is still room for more upside in this stock.

3. GUJALKALI
The winning streak continues for the bulls in Guj Alkali. Though the run has been very fast and swift; the volumes data suggests more upside is intact for this counter.

  

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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Nifty Outlook for 17th August, 2016

  8:06 AM    

Nifty Daily:

Nifty has been consolidating with negative bias at the higher levels. It is now fast approaching the support of the raising trend channel. Last week we noted, it's not going to be easy for Nifty to go down that smooth as it has created too many support and each support needs to be broken first for a smooth ride downside. Now Nifty could face three support inter-aligned in between 8540 - 8520. If this support is held for this week, we could see a rebound in nifty. Technically, the over heatedness is cooled off and now there is room for smart bounce as soon as some major support (like 8540) is tested.

Stay tuned as I update the status of all stocks that we are holding and it's status. We shall resume short term momentum calls from tomorrow.

  

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Thursday, August 11, 2016

Short term momentum call for 11th August, 2016

  8:48 AM    

Geojit 

 With every dip been bought into with higher volumes; this stock has the potential to move higher towards 47 mark in the coming days. Have been making a perfect higher high - low pattern in technical charts.

Finolex Cables

 This stock is all set to breakout from the side ways consolidation that we have been witnessing for the past few days. Once broken out this stock has the potential to higher towards 430 - 450 levels.

VHL
Vardhaman Holdings: The chart suggests that this stock will continue to move higher for next few days and would move towards 1400 once again and move towards 1450 - 1500. Though be cautious as this is a low volume counter comparatively. We couldn't place this stock chart here. 

  

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Nifty Outlook for 11th August, 2016.

  8:40 AM    

After closing above 8666 – 8680 resistance zone for two trading days; Nifty enters into a profit booking mode. Is this merely a profit booking or correction is in place? Well the speculators seems to be confident that the correction is in place. Looking at the Nifty Futures data; we found unwinding of long positions and built up in short positions; though this seems to confirm Nifty is entering into correction zone; this data is unreliable. The reason is during the past we have witnessed drastic changes in this data turning positive-negative and vice versa so fast. Along with this on the technical chart, we find many support in place to be tested before Nifty confirms the correction. If support promises to hold, this on-going profit booking would merely be an opportunity to enter long and the over heatedness that we found in Nifty would be cooled off; providing Nifty the room to move higher. We shall confirm correction once Nifty closes below 8475. If confirmed, Nifty would move towards 7780 – 7850.


  

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Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Nifty continues rally ahead of RBI meet

  7:57 AM    

Nifty closed above 8700 making it yearly high close for this year. Ahead of policy meet, this close suggests that market might be discounting a probable rate cut coming up in next month's policy decision. As far as technicals are concerned; nifty still looks positive and more room left on upside towards 8878. Any close below 8580 only needs to be looked into as a alarming sign.

For the day, bulls might be in full action and control.

  

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Monday, August 8, 2016

Nifty Outlook and short term momentum calls for 08/08/16

  7:35 AM    

NIFTY CHART OF THE DAY

Nifty Trend
In 60 minutes
In Daily
In Weekly
In Yearly
Nifty (Spot)
UP
UP
UP
UP

Market commentary: Nifty Spot

Nifty Spot: Closed above 8666 – 8680; eyeing 8878

Nifty did manage to close above 8666 – 8680 resistance zone. Now Nifty could march higher towards 8878. 8878 is a minor resistance zone when compared to that of 8666 – 8680. On its comparative basis; we expect Nifty to surpass even that if current bulls strength remains intact. Looking at the technicals, Nifty is still over heated and as the resistance zone is surpassed; it could well manage to run very fast towards 8878 mark. On the other hand, if Nifty fails to hold on to the closing resistance zone; then it calls for a cautious view (this is unlikely to happen). Watch out for the run up followed by mild correction by end of this weekend.

Va Tech Wabag

After being in a consolidation mode, this stock could give a breakout on the upside very soon. This breakout could lead this fundamentally strong stock to move towards 620 and 650 levels.

Ramco Cements

After a meaningful correction to the upside in past 2 weeks, this stock is all poised for resuming its rally. The new rally could resume towards 52 week high of 600+

Tata Motor DVR

We had exited the stock 2 – 3 weeks back after a sharp rally. The stock did witnessed a meaningful correction and all set for next leg up. This new leg upside would carry the stock towards 350+.

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Friday, August 5, 2016

Weekend Trackpad

  4:46 PM    

Good evening all,

It was a very volatile week, having moved sharply lower; Nifty rose completely by end of the week. The positive is: it did close above 8666-8680 resistance zone. Ending at this positive note, Nifty should move higher towards 8878 the week ahead. However, will do the analysis by weekend.

Quick Link: http://tinyurl.com/zc8ucap for looking at the weekly trackpad.

 Happy weekend.
Praveen Pathiyil

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Thursday, August 4, 2016

GST gets cleared in RS. Technically Nifty could still face hurdle at 8666.

  6:55 AM    

GST gets cleared in RS as anticipated. This is a major reformatory act enacted by our government since 1991. There is more clarity to be issued on how this is to be implemented by April 1st, 2017. However, this news has already been discounted by our market. So what’s likely to happen next?

Nifty might bounce towards 8650 mark and could hit the resistance bump at 8666 level once again. Unless we get a close above 8666 – 8680; it would be difficult for Nifty to move ahead. Most likely a correction is in place and any bounce in market would be sold into. On the other hand, only if Nifty manages to close above the resistance zone; has more room towards 8878 – 9000 mark before a correction could “possibly” kick in.

  

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Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Rupee update: Will history repeats? Are we heading towards 59?

  11:48 AM    


I am a chartist and I don’t look for cause and effect relationship; but believes in what chart speaks to me. This is an update on Indian Rupee post that we have made two weeks ago. Looking at the Indian Rupee chart, an observation was made and that was shared two weeks back. In that update I had informed that on the weekly chart if we close below ~66.5 we are heading towards 59 mark, which could make our Rupee stronger.


Now let us analyse the Big Picture. Updated above is the Indian Rupee chart since 1998. I have bifurcated the chart into distinct parts based on our Governor’s (in red dotted lines) and on the basis of ruling party (in blue dotted lines). If you were to keenly observe the chart, one thing could be observed: during the congress period both UPA 1 and UPA 2, we have seen appreciation in first half followed by depreciation during second half of their tenure. On the other hand during the previous BJP government (under Vajpayee ji), we had seen a depreciation in the first half followed by an appreciation in the second half. If history were to repeat; under Modi ji this time, we could see depreciation in the first half of his tenure (it has happened) and an appreciation in the second half (we shall wait and watch; will INR hit 59 mark). Technically, the breakdown in the weekly chart of the INR is showing signs of a stronger Rupee.

Disclaimer: I have not factored in any other economic factors influencing INR movement; these observation are purely based on technical charts.

If INR move towards 59 and below; our economy would be stronger. Let’s hope as a country we grow stronger.

Jai Hind.


  

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Nifty update: 8565 – 8555 holds key for the day

  10:56 AM    

As expected Nifty did find turbulence in the zone of 8666 – 8680. Having failed to close above this resistance zone; Nifty has been under pressure this morning. The zone of 8565 – 8555 gives us next cues as what would unfold in the coming days. Any close below the said support zone (8565 – 8555) confirms that Nifty is heading towards a correction. The correction could drag Nifty towards 7850 mark; though the correction wouldn’t be smooth initially as the upward trending channel would come into play. As of now let us concentrate on the support zone. If there is any major change will keep you posted.

  

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Monday, August 1, 2016

Nifty fails to close above 8666.

  8:39 PM    


Wild swings, Nifty failed to close above 8666, indicating the tug of war between Bulls and Bears continues. While Nifty Bulls and Bears continues to fight for next price action; stocks resumed its underlying trend. Thus we witnessed huge buying pressure in quality and fundamentally strong stocks. IT was a surprise pack though! We have identified that IT sector has turned down since the month of July; however we witnessed resumed buying interest in IT stocks. We still believe IT stocks could move lower and the bounce back that we are witnessing is merely a dead cat bounce. While the short term trend in Nifty still remains intact Bullish, we expect the Bears putting pressure as long as Nifty fails to close above 8666 – 8680 levels. Once crossed we could test 8878; on the other hand continuous failure to close above this resistance zone could trigger correction in Nifty by end of this week.

  

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Monday's Short term momentum calls...

  8:15 AM    

Good Morning all!

Firstly, what to expect from markets this week?

If Nifty manages to close above 8666, then it would rise immediately towards 8878. Looking at the weekly chart, Nifty could find profit booking during the fag end of this week; probably second half of Thursday and Friday. Till Wednesday, it is expected to rise and continue bullish momentum.

Here are our 3 short term momentum calls for today.

1. AKZOINDIA


 After being in a long consolidation phase, Akzo Nobel has given a breakout last week and have been moving in a small upward moving channel. The upside is still intact and the stock will face resistance at 1750, however this stock has more upside and could move towards 1800 levels.

2. ALLCARGO

 This stock is in a perfect parabolic channel. We expect it to raise further with increased momentum, especially with GST discussion on in Monsoon session. The climax would come once the GST bill is passed officially.

3. TNPL

 This paper company's price action can be channelized and we can find there more steam left for this company to push prices past 300 mark. Our price target for this company (through short term momentum) would be around 320 - 350.

08/08/2016: CMP: 301. Book complete profits, call closed.

  

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